Yes we have seen last week 5 Lower POC’s on the Market Profile Yes this is a down trend in formation. General Rule is three lower or high POC’s to say a trend forming.
Also watch for the unfilled gaps on the way down. The Ambush zone is 1068.75 to 1058.50.
Good Trading and may all your trades have fat tails and flat distributions
KT
Here is a ELD indicator for TradeStation that allows you to calculate Rotation Factors on Charts.
Good Trading and may all your trades have fat tails and flat distributions.
KT
Good Trading and may all your trades have fat tails and flat distributions
KT
With 1103.25 the High so far for 2009 if we drop some fibs on the chart from our 1026 swing low to our highs then we can get some idea of levels to watch. Interesting is the mid on this move is 1064.75 which is in close to the 1066.25 unfilled gap magnet. Then on the upside confluence zone to watch:
1. the 23.6 extension on this move 1122.25
2. the mid on the move from 1590.25 to 654 is 1121.50
3. the Yearly R2 at 1120.50 which is not drawn on this chart but refer here.
So I am going to be watching these levels in the coming days and weeks.
Good Trading and stick to your stops.
KT
Good Trading and Stick to your stops.
KT
Good Trading and may all your trades have fat tails and flat distributions
KT
This is a good example of a normal day on the Market Profile where Highs and Lows are put in on the Initial Balance and remain for the rest of the day. Strictly speaking this only occurs less than 2% of the time in the ES. In 2009 this has only occurred 4 times approx 1.2%. Refer to previous post to check the probabilities of the other indexes of normal days .
Good Trading and Stick to your stops
KT
I have added these trade indicators to the Indicator Page.
Good Trading and may all your trades have fat tails and flat distributions!
KT
Good Trading and stick to your stops
KT
Here is a study that I did just recently the numbers are fairly mind blowing but consistent with a lot of sources. The analysis was done from 19 Oct 1999 to 16 Oct 2009 so approx 10 years worth of data was used, test was with no stop just looking for gap fill. So are you sitting down….
the winners are Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursday as the best days to fade gaps 70%, 71.2% and 73% respectively as the probability of a gap fill on the ES and 65% - 69% closed within the first hour of trading. In fact the first 15mins was the largest percent of all gaps closed for all days of the week.
Hope this helps and may all your trades have fat tails and flat distributions!
KT
